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3X1 Public Affairs Team

The election results: What to watch for

12 December 2019

The election campaign is over and the nation is heading to the polls.  If you’re one of the brave souls who will pull an all-nighter to watch the results come in, here is our guide to the key Scottish seats for each party.

TARGET DEFENCE

Lanark and Hamilton East

Incumbent: Angela Crawley (Majority – 266)

When will results be known: 2:00am

Importance: The seat has evolved in recent times from a Labour fortress to a three-way SNP, Labour, Conservative marginal.  Turnout here will be key.

TARGET GAIN

Aberdeen South

Incumbent: Ross Thomson, Con (Majority – 4,752)

When will results be known: 3:00am

Importance: Thomson is not standing for re-election, following sexual harassment allegations.  The result here will be an indicator of the effectiveness of the SNP’s ‘Stop Brexit’ messaging.

THEY’RE IN TROUBLE IF THEY LOSE…

Glasgow South

Incumbent: Stewart McDonald (Majority – 2,027)

When will results be known: 3:00am

Importance: McDonald held the seat in 2017 in the face of sagging SNP turnout.  If former Scottish Labour leader Johann Lamont succeeds in flipping the seat red, the nationalists’ hold on its six other Glasgow seats may be more shoogly than previously thought.

TARGET DEFENCE

Stirling

Incumbent: Stephen Kerr (Majority – 148)

When will results be known: 3:00am

Importance: The party will be feeling good about their nationwide results if they manage to hang on to one of the most marginal seats in Scotland in the face of a strong challenge from popular SNP MEP Alyn Smith.

TARGET GAIN

Perth and North Perthshire

Incumbent: Pete Wishart, SNP (Majority – 21)

When will results be known: 3:30am

Importance: Local councillor Angus Forbes will be looking to overturn the SNP’s razor thin 21 vote majority to take the seat from the long-time SNP MP and former Scottish Affairs Committee chair Wishart.

THEY’RE IN TROUBLE IF THEY LOSE…

Banff and Buchan

Incumbent: David Duguid (Majority – 3,693)

When will results be known: 5:00am

Importance: Duguid delivered one of the shock wins of the 2017 election, taking the former SNP stronghold on the back of a 20 per cent vote swing.  One of the only Leave constituencies in Scotland, if the party hasn’t held the line here, they may be in for a long night.  

TARGET DEFENCE

Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath

Incumbent: Lesley Laird (Majority – 259)

When will results be known: 3:00am

Importance: The party will be looking to keep former Prime Minister Gordon Brown’s old seat which they re-gained from the SNP in 2017.

TARGET GAIN

Inverclyde

Incumbent: Ronnie Cowan, SNP (Majority – 384)

When will results be known: 2:30am

Importance: The former Labour stronghold switched to the nationalists in the 2015 SNP landslide.  Martin McCluskey, a former Kezia Dugdale adviser, will be looking to turn the seat red, after cutting Ronnie Cowan’s majority by almost 11,000 votes in 2017.

THEY’RE IN TROUBLE IF THEY LOSE…

Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill

Incumbent: Hugh Gaffney (Majority – 1,586)

When will results be known: 4:00am

Importance: Support for the former postie Gaffney has held up in this industrial seat in an election campaign where Labour’s message has struggled to achieve cut-through nationally. The party is confident they can hold the seat.  If he loses though, it could foreshadow larger losses to come elsewhere.

TARGET DEFENCE

Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross

Incumbent: Jamie Stone (Majority – 2,044)

When will results be known: 4:00am

Importance: The party will be looking to keep this traditionally liberal seat it re-captured from the SNP in 2017.

TARGET GAIN

North East Fife

Incumbent: Stephen Gethins, SNP (Majority – 2)

When will results be known: 4:00am

Importance: The most marginal constituency in the UK, no effort has been spared in their attempt to re-take party grandee Menzies Campbell’s former seat.

THEY’RE IN TROUBLE IF THEY LOSE…

East Dunbartonshire

Incumbent: Jo Swinson (Majority – 5,339)

When will results be known: 3:00am

Importance: The UK party leader has endured a difficult campaign.  The result here will serve as a referendum on her leadership and her party’s campaign messaging.

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